Changes, page 8 of 55

Every substantive change to the register, newest first. Speaker events record what the people covered said or changed. Site events record what this site published, corrected, flagged, or withdrew. The two never share a label.

Substantive changes (10984)

Page 8 of 55: changes 1401 to 1600 of 10984, newest first. Dates are when the change was recorded.

2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
He doesn't believe OpenAI will continue growing forever, and OpenAI's poor conversion rate isn't going to change anytime soon.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-how-to-argue-with-an-ai-booster-937bc5-a2.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-how-to-argue-with-an-ai-booster-9274fa
The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
ChatGPT is essentially the same product as Claude, Grok and other LLMs.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-how-to-argue-with-an-ai-booster-5a16d7-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
There is no proof that AI is why young people are struggling to find jobs.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-how-to-argue-with-an-ai-booster-37780a-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
AI foundation models will not do scientific research.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-how-to-argue-with-an-ai-booster-2883f4-a2.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-godot-isnt-making-it-f53615
hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
The hallucination problem is nowhere closer to being solved, may never go away at least with current technology, and makes generative AI a non-starter for a great many business tasks that need high reliability.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-godot-isnt-making-it-df862b-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-godot-isnt-making-it-ddd093
The final-text check failed: citations_correct.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Anthropic is on course to lose more than $2.7 billion in 2024.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-godot-isnt-making-it-ddd093-2-a2.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Generative AI products have not meaningfully progressed for over a year.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-godot-isnt-making-it-d9b083-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Generative AI is a dead end because probabilistic models hallucinate, stating false things authoritatively.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-godot-isnt-making-it-d80c97-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-godot-isnt-making-it-d210c7
hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
If NVIDIA does not solve Blackwell's cooling problem well, customers will encounter thermal throttling.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-godot-isnt-making-it-bedfc0-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-godot-isnt-making-it-a00824
The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-godot-isnt-making-it-9d1910
The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Big tech's LLMs are increasingly expensive, near-identical iterations because they all use the same training data, which is running out.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-godot-isnt-making-it-85796e-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Generative AI is a dead-end technology whose inessential products cost more to serve than anyone would pay.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-godot-isnt-making-it-738efb-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-godot-isnt-making-it-5f5628
The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Capital expenditures on generative AI and infrastructure exceeded $200 billion in the last year.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-godot-isnt-making-it-5955f2-a2.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-godot-isnt-making-it-48334a
hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
If transformer models are at diminishing returns, it will be extremely difficult to justify buying NVIDIA GPUs beyond Blackwell.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-godot-isnt-making-it-3f1df7-a2.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-godot-isnt-making-it-36d73e
The openai review reads the claim differently.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
OpenAI currently spends $2.35 for every $1 of revenue it makes.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-godot-isnt-making-it-254737-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Generative AI is incredibly unprofitable.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-godot-isnt-making-it-03878e-a2.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-four-horsemen-of-the-aipocalypse-f68e7b
The final-text check failed: citations_correct.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-four-horsemen-of-the-aipocalypse-ea438f
The two reviews differ: anthropic forecast_outcome/open_horizon/not_adjudicable, openai forecast_outcome/open_horizon/unresolved.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Most of OpenAI's, Cursor's and Anthropic's revenue comes from subsidized software subscriptions.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-four-horsemen-of-the-aipocalypse-dc2623-a2.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Anthropic cannot afford to provide a stable and reliable service to its customers.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-four-horsemen-of-the-aipocalypse-d94798-a2.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Hundreds of billions of dollars of GPUs are sitting uninstalled in warehouses, with a quarter's GPU sales taking six months to install.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-four-horsemen-of-the-aipocalypse-d46332-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-four-horsemen-of-the-aipocalypse-d20362
The anthropic review does not accept e2 as contradicts.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-four-horsemen-of-the-aipocalypse-c887ca
The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
AI demand is inflated by token-maxxing and subsidized services.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-four-horsemen-of-the-aipocalypse-99734a-a2.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-four-horsemen-of-the-aipocalypse-8feffd
a observation claim cannot be assessed on the causal_assessment axis
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Venture capital funding allows Anthropic to massively subsidize its services.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-four-horsemen-of-the-aipocalypse-8e3ee9-a2.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-four-horsemen-of-the-aipocalypse-81e0f4
The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful; overclaims: Normalised proposition: '...below the four-nines standard.'.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Every AI startup other than OpenAI, Cursor and Anthropic is making single- or double-digit millions of dollars in revenue and losing hundreds of millions of dollars to get there.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-four-horsemen-of-the-aipocalypse-7b4043-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
NVIDIA is selling more GPUs than can possibly be installed.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-four-horsemen-of-the-aipocalypse-6aa69e-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-four-horsemen-of-the-aipocalypse-63d5b6
The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Because Anthropic's capacity issues are not affecting its growth, adding more capacity simply makes the product work better for a much higher cost.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-four-horsemen-of-the-aipocalypse-5bf297-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-four-horsemen-of-the-aipocalypse-36d665
The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-four-horsemen-of-the-aipocalypse-36a305
The anthropic review reads the claim differently.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Neither Anthropic nor OpenAI faces a financial shortfall from being unable to provide their services; their shortfalls come from providing their services to customers, and the only ones paying the price of the capacity limits are the customers.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-four-horsemen-of-the-aipocalypse-1ccbad-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-four-horsemen-of-the-aipocalypse-118e35
The two reviews differ: anthropic forecast_outcome/open_horizon/not_adjudicable, openai forecast_outcome/open_horizon/unresolved.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-four-horsemen-of-the-aipocalypse-0af810
The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-four-horsemen-of-the-aipocalypse-0aad8a
The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-expectations-versus-reality-e2773d
The anthropic review reads the claim differently.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
None of Sora's generative workflow actually works if you are making an actual movie.
The final-text check failed: citations_correct.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-expectations-versus-reality-6ac1ed
e1 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Anthropic's compute costs, hundreds of billions due over the next few years, will increase dramatically.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-exit-liquidity-683c04-a2.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-dont-look-up-0e8993
The two reviews differ: anthropic causal_assessment/not_applicable/supported, openai causal_assessment/not_applicable/unresolved.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-disruption-killed-innovation-d2bd26
The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-deep-impact-7b0c7a
The final-text check failed: citations_correct.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-deep-impact-6c92cd
e1 is dated 2025-01, which is not inside the period described (2025-01-01 to 2025-01-29); it can only be context
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
It is quite obvious at this point that if LLM companies actually tried to productize LLMs and turn them into a business, there really isn't a multi-trillion-dollar industry for generative AI.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-deep-impact-6afa71-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-deep-impact-491ea1
The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-deep-impact-26b61f
The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
The roughly $800 billion invested in AI startups over the past four years has no real hope of being recovered.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-credit-crunch-bf0839-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-credit-crunch-54ad05
The final-text check failed: citations_correct.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Hyperscalers have no other hypergrowth ideas left to sell investors, and in pursuit of AI they have become the most asset-burdened companies on the Fortune 500, rivaling ExxonMobil, Berkshire Hathaway and Chevron, with GPUs that only retain value during a hype cycle.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-credit-crunch-148670-a2.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
There are no winners: if Anthropic kills Cursor through aggressive rent-seeking, that eats directly into its own revenues, and if it lets Cursor succeed, that revenue is clearly unprofitable.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-costs-da3cdf-a2.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-costs-d797fd
hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-costs-c5038f
hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-costs-b512d9
The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Cursor's AWS bill more than doubled from May to June 2025, worsening a cash crunch that began when Anthropic introduced rent-seeking Priority Service Tiers, which started the Subprime AI Crisis.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-costs-af430e-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-costs-ae9ac2
hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-costs-9f9b2a
The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-costs-7063fe
The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
The AWS billing data seen for Anthropic and Cursor shows an overall direction of travel in which compute costs only keep going up.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-costs-5ec17c-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
AI-native companies will see multiple price increases from model providers in the next few months.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-costs-382388-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Through September 2025 Anthropic spent $2.66 billion on AWS against an estimated $2.55 billion in revenue, more than 100% of its revenue.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-costs-259ad1-a2.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-costs-0d0c5d
hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
CoreWeave's financials suggest there is either no demand or no profit in providing generative AI services.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-core-incompetency-993664-a2.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
The market for by-the-hour AI compute sold to regular companies does not exist at meaningful revenue.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-core-incompetency-741de4-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
If CoreWeave makes it to IPO, which may happen as soon as next week, it will raise about $4 billion, which might give it about a year of runway; by October 2025 it will face upwards of $500 million in loan payments a quarter while scaling an operation that doesn't appear to have a path to profit.
The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-cargo-culture-c1a498
The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful, citations_correct.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
OpenAI spent $8.67 billion on inference in the first nine months of 2025, undermining claims that its inference is profitable.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-cargo-culture-874112-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-cargo-culture-785c33
The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence, citations_correct.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-cargo-culture-149d3d
The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Zitron fully believes some low-fi version of generative AI will plug along silently once the hyperscalers flee.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-burst-damage-95765f-a2.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-bubble-trouble-a3ceda
The openai review reads the claim differently.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-bubble-trouble-3f6607
The openai review reads the claim differently.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-bubble-trouble-2b7401
The final-text check failed: excerpt_matches.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
The vast majority of Anthropic's recent revenue surge comes from experimental spending by customers whom Anthropic does not give clear visibility into their organizational token spend.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-brokenomics-a4cf03-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-are-we-watching-the-internet-die-b46ea1
The final-text check failed: citations_correct.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
The NVIDIA GPUs big tech bought with ~$850B capex since 2023 will be nearly completely obsolete by 2030.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-am-i-meant-to-be-impressed-fc83f7-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Meta, Microsoft, Google and Amazon will not die as a result of the AI bubble bursting.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-am-i-meant-to-be-impressed-eaeb30-a2.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-am-i-meant-to-be-impressed-e99ec4
The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-am-i-meant-to-be-impressed-e89892
The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful, citations_correct; overclaims: He personally thinks Anthropic's implausibly fast revenue numbers are explained by it doing something peculiar with its annualized revenue calculations..
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Outside OpenAI and Anthropic there is barely any AI demand at the scale needed to justify a trillion dollars in capex.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-am-i-meant-to-be-impressed-4fa453-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-ais-economics-dont-make-sense-f016a3
The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-ais-economics-dont-make-sense-cde3ba
a observation claim cannot be assessed on the forecast_outcome axis
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Oracle is insufficiently capitalized to finish Stargate Abilene and will need at least another $150 billion to do so, assuming other partners pick up about $30 billion in costs.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-ais-economics-dont-make-sense-8e2b23-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
LLM-based subscriptions will go away entirely, at least for code-generating products.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-ais-economics-dont-make-sense-853e46-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-ais-economics-dont-make-sense-745a5a
The final-text check failed: citations_correct.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Hyperscalers will not recover their AI investments without a massive new product line or three or four more Anthropic/OpenAI-sized compute contracts.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-ai-is-too-expensive-ffe4e5-a2.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-ai-is-too-expensive-d4f8aa
hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
By Zitron's partly estimated tally, Anthropic needs about $380 billion over the next four years: $330 billion in cloud obligations to Amazon, Google and Microsoft, an estimated $20 billion for its xAI compute deal, and an estimated $30 billion for its CoreWeave deal.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-ai-is-too-expensive-b54dae-a2.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-ai-is-too-expensive-9dba55
The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-ai-is-too-expensive-8e234e
The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-ai-is-too-expensive-834bfc
The openai review reads the claim differently.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-ai-is-too-expensive-7e93aa
The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-ai-is-too-expensive-744eed
The anthropic review reads the claim differently.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-ai-is-too-expensive-54f878
The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/not_adjudicable.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Every organization the author spoke to has exceeded or nearly exhausted its annual AI token budget five months into 2026.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-ai-is-too-expensive-51c48c-a2.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-ai-is-too-expensive-39f0b3
The openai review doubts the attribution.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-ai-is-too-expensive-176c49
The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-ai-is-too-expensive-098caa
The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-ai-is-slowing-down-a128c7
The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful, citations_correct.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-ai-is-slowing-down-49f0ff
The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
TokenMaxxing spending is exactly the kind of revenue that disappears first.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-ai-is-really-weird-cc44bd-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Anthropic's revenue is roughly 75% API and 25% subscriptions, by the author's estimate.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-ai-is-really-weird-9c15c4-a3.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-ai-is-really-weird-9bccfa
e1 is dated 2026, which is not inside the period described (2025-01-01 to 2026-04-08); it can only be context; e1 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-ai-is-really-weird-9427f8
The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/contradicted.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Model providers reportedly pushing enterprise clients onto API billing, combined with mandates to use as much AI as possible, naturally increases the cost of having software engineers, the opposite of replacing workers with AI.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-ai-is-really-weird-6f943e-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-ai-is-really-weird-6f41a6
The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Coding LLMs are popular only because of massive subsidies and corporate encouragement, and in the end will be seen as a useful-yet-incremental and far too expensive way to make easy things easier and hard things harder, while filling codebases with bloated, unintentional code.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-ai-is-really-weird-620dd6-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Meta does not track any ROI on token burn; tokenmaxxing there exists only to climb a leaderboard.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-ai-is-really-weird-4c0f69-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-ai-is-really-weird-3c4350
The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-ai-is-really-weird-318f57
the contract's accounting basis is unknown; a financial claim is scored only on a stated basis; contradicted needs at least one contradicting item of outcome evidence
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-ai-is-really-weird-1d0ff8
The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/not_adjudicable, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Data centers make up 90% of NVIDIA's revenue, so about 8% of the S&P 500's value comes from a company selling hardware to buyers who immediately lose money installing it.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-ai-is-really-weird-041bad-a2.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands-9518d4
a observation claim cannot be assessed on the causal_assessment axis
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands-5021c1
The openai review reads the claim differently.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-74178d
The two reviews differ: anthropic forecast_outcome/open_horizon/not_adjudicable, openai forecast_outcome/open_horizon/unresolved.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-4606d0
The final-text check failed: citations_correct.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteGary Marcus
Held record marcus-will-tesla-ever-solve-full-self-driving-d5ca7b
hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteGary Marcus
Held record marcus-why-my-pdoom-has-risen-dramatically-6a0e1a
The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteGary Marcus
Held record marcus-why-is-bing-so-reckless-90f9da
The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
Search engines that return well-written paragraphs and AI agents that can organize lives will eventually arrive, though possibly only for our grandchildren or their children.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-why-driverless-cars-mightor-might-005f03-a2.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
Breaking-news errors in LLMs arise, like hallucinations, because pure LLMs correlate words but lack stable, revisable world models.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-why-chatgpt-cant-be-trusted-with-a446b0-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
California's SB-1047 was significantly weakened in last-minute negotiations.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-why-californias-ai-safety-bill-should-a304ec-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteGary Marcus
Held record marcus-when-it-comes-to-security-llms-are-ee710a
The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
There is little if any government regulation in place to address chatbot guardrail failures.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-when-it-comes-to-security-llms-are-94566d-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteGary Marcus
Held record marcus-when-it-comes-to-security-llms-are-3f9d5d
The final-text check failed: citations_correct.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteGary Marcus
Held record marcus-when-it-comes-to-security-llms-are-2fbe0f
The anthropic review reads the claim differently.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
The more people use LLMs, the more trouble we are going to be in.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-when-it-comes-to-security-llms-are-23d26c-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteGary Marcus
Held record marcus-when-it-comes-to-security-llms-are-1e7204
The openai review does not accept e1 as supports.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
Despite years of jailbreaks, the tech industry has no robust defense against them.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-when-it-comes-to-security-llms-are-19b54d-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteGary Marcus
Held record marcus-when-it-comes-to-ai-policy-congress-2a3cac-2
The final-text check failed: citations_correct.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteGary Marcus
Big Tech is pushing for federal preemption specifically because of state AI regulatory momentum.
The final-text check failed: citations_correct.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
There is no obvious way to integrate large language models with the kind of formal verification methods that are now routine in designing microprocessors, USB drivers and large aircraft.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-whats-wrong-with-googles-new-robot-965b92-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
The language technology that PaLM-SayCan relies on is well known to be problematic.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-whats-wrong-with-googles-new-robot-730ea2-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteGary Marcus
Held record marcus-whats-wrong-with-googles-new-robot-668692
The anthropic review does not accept e2 as contradicts.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
More data alone will not be enough to solve the problems of robotics.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-whats-wrong-with-googles-new-robot-525fa1-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
Making driverless cars work reliably has proven far harder than most people realized.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-whats-wrong-with-googles-new-robot-519bcd-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteGary Marcus
Held record marcus-whats-wrong-with-googles-new-robot-2e4ae3
e1 is dated 2022, which is not inside the period described (2022-01-01 to 2022-08-18); it can only be context
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
Building a robot on top of a language system with so little comprehension of the world cannot be a recipe for success.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-whats-wrong-with-googles-new-robot-1cbb4b-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
If citizens don't make clear that AI policy matters, candidates for the House, Senate, and President will not talk about it.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-what-will-the-candidates-say-about-d9a220-a2.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
Nonconsensual deepfake porn is a growing problem.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-what-will-the-candidates-say-about-c2395f-a2.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteGary Marcus
Held record marcus-what-will-the-candidates-say-about-9fb955
"unlikely" is hedged or probabilistic; one outcome does not score it; hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
AI is contributing to an escalation in fraud and disinformation.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-what-will-the-candidates-say-about-51ecde-a2.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
At this point there is no turning back: governments going forward will have to consider which AI deployments are unsafe and block those that are.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-what-washington-must-do-c0888a-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
The rushed and seemingly unprincipled White House decision will leave the rest of the world rushing towards 'sovereign AI' (for example from European or Canadian companies) and even Chinese AI, rather than deal with US uncertainty in which any model can be shut down at any time without warning or clear explanation.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-what-washington-must-do-6be580-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
The White House decision will slow down Anthropic, one of the leading US AI labs.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-what-washington-must-do-2eb682-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteGary Marcus
Held record marcus-what-was-60-minutes-thinking-in-that-8f1110
The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteGary Marcus
Held record marcus-what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-a7d273
The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteGary Marcus
Held record marcus-what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-62e-1994a4
The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence, citations_correct; overclaims: ORCFLO's consistency score measures repeatability, not users' advance predictions; its 40 English text-only cases exclude several major task types..
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteGary Marcus
Held record marcus-what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-62e-119f96
The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
Guardrails like ChatGPT's may be in place for GPT-4, but they will teeter between being too weak (beaten by jailbreaks) and too strong (rejecting some perfectly reasonable requests).
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-05ddec-a2.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
OpenAI never delivered on its promise to devote 20% of its efforts to AI safety.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-what-should-we-learn-from-openais-c4e887-a2.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
Foundation models are deeply unstable, which makes them difficult to engineer into reliable products.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-what-exactly-are-the-economics-of-62834f-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteGary Marcus
Held record marcus-what-does-it-mean-when-an-ai-fails-e19a2c
The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
AI agents are causing incidents with frightening regularity, and the latest, from Anthropic, is fairly serious.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-we-must-recall-open-ended-ai-agents-df52ad-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteGary Marcus
Held record marcus-unwoven-f9a60a
The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
CoreWeave's IPO valued it at about $23 billion, a major retreat from the roughly $32 billion it was thought to be worth weeks earlier.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-unwoven-f15c54-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteGary Marcus
Held record marcus-two-years-later-deep-learning-is-dee1ae
The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
OpenAI's new effort to solve these problems still ends up fabricating authoritative nonsense.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-two-years-later-deep-learning-is-d4c2a5-a2.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
Deep learning is a pattern-recognition technique that works best for rough, low-stakes results where perfect results are optional.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-two-years-later-deep-learning-is-caff83-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
Scaling has helped but has not solved any of the fundamental deep-learning problems Marcus identified.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-two-years-later-deep-learning-is-c3a58d-a2.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
As of March 2024, deep learning still has not replaced a single radiologist.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-two-years-later-deep-learning-is-8c751c-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
Current deep-learning systems still often make stupid errors.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-two-years-later-deep-learning-is-6d3049-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteGary Marcus
Held record marcus-two-years-later-deep-learning-is-2b030b
The anthropic review does not accept e2 as supports.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteGary Marcus
Held record marcus-two-years-later-deep-learning-is-105e61
The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
Microsoft's current AI products are not transparent and in some ways demonstrably not safe.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-two-models-of-ai-oversight-and-how-8173bb-a2.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
Scientists lack access to how GPT-4 works and its training data, making it about as far from transparent as possible.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-two-models-of-ai-oversight-and-how-7164b6-a2.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteGary Marcus
Held record marcus-top-5-reasons-teslas-optimus-announcement-d356a6
The two reviews differ: anthropic forecast_outcome/open_horizon/not_adjudicable, openai forecast_outcome/open_horizon/unresolved.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
The real problem with robots has never been demos, of which there have been many for decades; it is making robots robust in the real world.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-top-5-reasons-teslas-optimus-announcement-9426af-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteGary Marcus
Held record marcus-top-5-reasons-teslas-optimus-announcement-50989a
the conclusive event e1 is not outcome evidence in the packet
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
There is not a huge moat to protect OpenAI from competitors because its central technology, as far as anyone knows, is large language models, which many other companies know how to build.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-top-5-reasons-openai-is-probably-25556c-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteGary Marcus
Held record marcus-top-5-reasons-openai-is-probably-0fc4e6
The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
If OpenAI had to retrain only on consented materials, its results would be significantly weakened and retraining would be very costly.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-top-5-reasons-openai-is-probably-0d189e-a2.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteGary Marcus
Held record marcus-top-5-reasons-openai-is-probably-09f4d3
the contract's accounting basis is unknown; a financial claim is scored only on a stated basis; supported needs at least one supporting item of outcome evidence
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteGary Marcus
Held record marcus-too-much-benefit-of-the-doubt-eac54d
e1 is dated 2022, which is not inside the period described (2022-01-01 to 2022-10-16); it can only be context
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
Using AI to augment workers is much easier than replacing them, because augmentation does not require solving the whole job.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-too-much-benefit-of-the-doubt-cd49a0-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteGary Marcus
Held record marcus-too-much-benefit-of-the-doubt-c7d8d8
e1 is dated 2022, which is not inside the period described (2022-01-01 to 2022-10-16); it can only be context
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
There is no evidence that current scan-reading AI techniques will produce a full radiologist replacement any time soon.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-too-much-benefit-of-the-doubt-c0ff9d-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
The study's R = 0.5 correlation predicts only 25% of the variance, leaving three-quarters unexplained, not half as the paper implied.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-too-much-benefit-of-the-doubt-979f4c-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteGary Marcus
Held record marcus-too-much-benefit-of-the-doubt-806778
e2 is dated 2022, which is not inside the period described (2022-01-01 to 2022-10-16); it can only be context
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
The evidence does not support claiming any direct link between deep learning models' inner workings and the human brain.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-too-much-benefit-of-the-doubt-7a87fd-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
As of October 2022, AI still lacks comprehension, and very few if any jobs have actually been replaced by AI.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-too-much-benefit-of-the-doubt-723cae-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
Having AI read radiology scans is very different from replacing the entire job of a radiologist.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-too-much-benefit-of-the-doubt-718d37-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
AI will not fully displace radiologists, as opposed to augmenting them, before 2033.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-too-much-benefit-of-the-doubt-59b79b-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
No current AI system can learn new things from tiny amounts of data the way human children constantly do.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-too-much-benefit-of-the-doubt-4cae0d-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
As of October 2022, every truck the author knows of is still driven by a person (except in some limited-use test pilots), and no radiologists have yet been replaced.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-too-much-benefit-of-the-doubt-27bf0c-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteGary Marcus
Held record marcus-too-much-benefit-of-the-doubt-25ebc5
The openai review reads the claim differently.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
There is currently no AI system that is a viable competitor to human general intelligence.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-too-much-benefit-of-the-doubt-1b6e98-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
Humanoid domestic robots require general intelligence, and there are no serious candidates for such intelligence yet.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-too-much-benefit-of-the-doubt-114c2e-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
We do not currently know how to build machines that can read and understand tax codes well enough to replace accountants.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-too-much-benefit-of-the-doubt-0b495a-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteGary Marcus
Held record marcus-too-big-to-fail-b703ff
The final-text check failed: citations_correct.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus
Gary Marcus has long been worried that OpenAI and the LLM industry were getting too big to fail.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment marcus-too-big-to-fail-8fb273-a1.